Development of a New Predictive Model Enabling the Assessment of the Anaerobic Mechanical Power Outputs from Maximal and Submaximal Aerobic Exercise Stress Tests

Background: During physical activity, the energy production (ATP) system works in integrated way and determined specially by the intensity and duration of the exercise. During incremental stress test, the main system during the first part of the test is consider to include the aerobic system while the last part includes the anaerobic components, which means that ATP utilization occurs mostly through the lactic and alactic systems. Our hypothesis is that anaerobic capacity, by means of the anaerobic mechanical power outputs, can be predicted through a routine clinical exercise stress tests.

Methods: We have collected data from: (1) cardiopulmonary exercise stress tests (CPET), and (2) from the Wingate Anaerobic Test (WAnT) which measures anaerobic mechanical power outputs, from within the same individuals. We have used the greedy heuristic algorithm to analyze the data and have succeeded to extract predictions equations to the anaerobic power outputs for both maximal incremental CPET and sub-maximal exercise stress tests.

Results: For maximal incremental CPET, we have shown a prediction correlation of ~0.94, and ~0.9 to the peak power [w] and mean power [w], respectively. For sub-maximal exercise stress test, we have shown a prediction correlation of ~0.89, and ~0.9 to the peak power [w] and mean power [w], respectively.

Conclusion: The newly predictive model allows the accurate prediction of the anaerobic mechanical power outputs at high accuracy. This will allow exercise physiologist, coaches, etc. to understand the contribution of the anaerobic components within aerobic exercise stress test.