Forecasting the Likelihood of Depression and Other Mental Illness in Soldiers before Adverse, Irreversible Consequences Set In

Background: Mental illness has long been known to be catalyzed by stressful, traumatic periods. There is no setting more stressful than military and first responder environments. As referenced in Medscape – Tools for Depression (Mark Zimmerman, 2011), self-reports of well-being measures may help identify warning signs of mental burnout and other issues before adverse, irreversible consequences set in. RightBlue Labs has been able to prove that its daily self-report technology can accurately flag warning signs in performance athletes for injury, illness and burnout. The research project will focus on mapping injury, illness, and mental deterioration outcomes for compliant soldiers over time, and correlating this data with recovery practices.

Aims: 1) Does journaling consistently provide adequate information to forecast burnout before clear signs of burnout manifest? 2) Can reliable forecasts be created for injury and illness risks for soldiers who journal consistently?

Method: Five hundred soldiers will log for a period of seven months on their perceptions of their own wellbeing, their enjoyment and their training regimen. They will also log key adverse outcomes such as injury, illness, or other issues.

Those who achieve an average compliance rate of 80%+ throughout the course of the trial will have their data scanned for patterns on an ongoing basis in an attempt to predict outcomes. Predictions will be compared with actual outcomes to test the validity of the model and to see if accurate forecasts may be built.