Does Success Breed Success? A 3-Step Investigation of Momentum in Basketball Overtimes

The success breeds success phenomenon, commonly referred to as momentum, is a central concept in management and humanity sciences. The question of whether momentum actually boosts performance, or is only perceived to do so, was examined using the game of basketball in two different settings.

Variable and unpredictable environment setting: As a no-draw result is allowed according to basketball rules, when the regular time ends with a tied score, teams continue the game in overtime. There is reason to believe that although both teams always start the overtime with the same score, their psychological state (i.e., momentum) may differ and thus affect their performance. Consequently, in the first part of the current investigation we wanted to examine momentum perceptions for this setting. Two studies were conducted in this connection. In study 1A we employed a qualitative approach by conducting interviews with four top Israeli basketball coaches to better understand experts` perceptions and interpretations of game dynamics by the end of the fourth quarter and in overtime. Based on what we learned from the elite coaches, we designed questionnaires for the assessment of performance perceptions that were administered to sufficient samples of practitioners and fans in study 1B. We then examined actual team performance in overtime, based on scoring data from 11 seasons in the NBA.

Predictable environment setting: To account for performance that is more controlled, we analyzed all sets of three consecutive free throws attempted during 14 seasons in the NBA.