Hot Hand/Momentum: The State of the Art

The hot hand debate has generated great interest among scientists since the pioneering study by Gilovich and his colleagues (1985) was published three decades ago. Basically, the hot hand/momentum is viewed as a psychological state of mind affecting performance in a positive direction where almost everything seems to go successfully for the performer. As a topic of research, the hot hand belief reflects an extreme inconsistency between statistical considerations and intuitive judgment, which in many cases is manifested by enormous emotional involvement. Tracking the literature around this issue drives us back to the early 1970s, to a book discussing psychological aspects of athletic performance (Alderman, 1974), and a few years later to another book, entitled Momentum: A Theory of Social Action, written by Peter Adler (1981). The conclusion that emerges from previous research suggests that the hot hand is probably not merely an illusion, however the effect is clearly much smaller than most people believe. In recent years more advanced statistical tools have been employed and several new directions to investigate the phenomenon have been suggested, but none has been able to refute earlier basic conclusions. The present review briefly follows the progress of the debate over this issue and points to some major milestones in the research towards a better understanding of the phenomenon.