The Demographic Trends of Jews and Total Populations in Poland-Lithuania and Germany-Austria 1500-1930

We document that between 1500 and 1930, the Jewish population in the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth increased at an annual rate of 1.37 percent, which is strikingly high relative to any population at that time. While in 1500 only 0.13 percent of the Polish-Lithuanian population was Jewish, this figure reached more than 15.4 percent by 1880, with Polish-Lithuanian Jews amounting to about 61percent of world Jewry in that year. We then investigate what were the sources for this exceptional Jewish population growth in the early modern and modern period. First, based on existing demographic data we show that there is evidence that a large proportion of the Jewish population in Poland-Lithuania originated from the Germany-Austria area with significant immigration until the mid-seventeenth century. However, we document that there is no evidence for the immigration of Khazars or any other Jewish group from the East. Second, we provide a lot of evidence that lower infant and child mortality among Jews springing from their (religiously-based) childcare norms and practices account for the main difference in Jewish natural population growth (about 70 percent) compared to the total population. While their birth rate was about the same as that of non-Jews, infant and child mortality among Jews was much lower in both Poland-Lithuania and Germany-Austria.