Allocation Optimization of Water Resources Based on Uncertainty Modeling

There are many uncertain factors in the process of water resources allocation in the main grain producing areas. While pursuing the minimum cost, there are also large risks. In this paper, the five administrative districts of Qitaihe, Jiamusi, Shuangyashan, Hegang and Jixi covered by the Sanjiang Plain, an important grain producing area, are used as research areas. The two-stage interval planning method is adopted to minimize the water cost to the uncertain optimization target. And the risk preference is introduced, and the optimal allocation model of water resources under the joint scheduling conditions of surface water and groundwater is established, and the water shortage and optimal water allocation of each administrative area are analyzed. The results show that there is a lot of water shortage in the process of surface water distribution in Shuangyashan and Jixi. The main exploitation and utilization of groundwater, Jiamusi as an administrative area with a large grain production area, requires a large amount of water, so it is more replenished by external water. The planting area of ​​Qitaihe River and Hegang is small, and the water resources is small. Considering the water diversion cost and food yield, the recharge is less by external water. The application of the model, while coordinating the allocation of water resources, comprehensively measures costs and risks, effectively saves water costs, and enhances the ability of water resources systems to avoid risks, and improves planning and management of water use efficiency and regional water resources. Provide a basis for more realistic reflection of uncertain water resources optimization configuration.