Study of Future Climte for Southern Panama Through the MRI-ACGM Model and Its Implications in Maize Production

Climate models are computer simulations that use mathematical formulas to recreate the chemical and physical processes that control Earth`s climate. A General Circulation Model (GCM) is a mathematical description of the earth`s climate system that divides it into a series of cells and several levels of the atmosphere, the ocean, and the earth. GCMs and global climate models are used for the prediction of future climates, thus helping to understand climate and forecast climate change. In this project we focus on the MRI-AGCM model, jointly developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The objective of this work is: 1) to explore the meteorological predictions database provided by the MRI-ACGM model that contains information on future climates at the end of the 21st century (2075-2099) for the Republic of Panama; 2) use descriptive statistics tools to study precipitation and temperature projected for the RCP 8.5 scenarios for four (4) different Sea Surface Temperature schemes; 3) explore the impact of these two variables in specific locations from the region of Azuero and study its implications for maize production. For the extraction of climatic data, a subroutine was defined within the "Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS)" package. From the predicted data an analysis was done for the years 2075 until 2099, calculating, averages, confidence intervals and statistical significance for the planting month of august, september and october by plot localities to the north and south of the capital city in Los Santos Province. The importance of this work is that it presents preliminary analysis that aims to make an assessment of the impact of temperature, precipitation, at the end of the century on the levels of maize crop yield in the Azuero peninsula, which has relevant country-wide impact in food security and food stability.