Benefit and Risk Analysis of Food Resource Utilization in Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Short and Medium Term Hydrological Forecasting

The operational practice since the trial water impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir show that implement schedule for medium and small-sized floods during flood season not only release the flood control pressure to the lower reaches, but also obtain the benefit of flood resources utilization. Accurate and predictable hydrological forecast provide decision-making time and support for the optimal utilization, enhancing the flexibility of operation scheme, and is conducive to exerting more benefits. To promote the utilization of flood resources, taking the flood season of 2018 as an example, the optimized operation of flood based on hydrological forecasting are summarized, as well as the comprehensive benefits of flood control, shipping and power generation, a comprehensive research is conducted on the utilization schedule of flood resources for inflows between 30000 ～ 55000 m³/ s then. Through the research, the basic principles and control conditions of flood resources utilization are studied firstly, then the starting time and the pre-dis-charge conditions are also analyzed, the operational rules are formulated and its impact on the flood control and generation are also analyzed．Finally, by considering the influences of flood forecasting errors, the impact of forecasting period and reservoir regulation from the upstream, the risk of inundation and flood control safety of downstream are analyzed and the counter measures are put forward. The results of study have important theoretical significance and good value of extension and application to give full play to the comprehensive utilization benefit of Three Gorges Reservoir.