Analysing a Robust Risk-Based Decision Support System Model for Effective Watershed Governance; Study Area of Kashafrud River Basin

In recent years, inefficient governance in water resources management and qualitative and quantitative degradation of water resources and unbalanced allocation of the resources into several demands have caused a serious crisis within the watersheds. One of the most important challenges for the stakeholders is the group consensus for selecting the most preferable scenario for watershed. The other important challenge is the consideration of the stakeholders’ risk attitudes, which affect the final selection. This paper has developed a novel approach based on the Compromise Programming (CP) method, in which the degree of consensus has been considered according to the distances between each stakeholder’s opinion with regard to that of the group. In addition, a risk assessment has been analyzed to calculate the scenario scores and group consensus measurements of scenarios. In the risk analysis, the scenario scores have been calculated by using the Hybrid Weighted Averaging (HWA) risk-based operator, in which the number of criteria has been satisfied. Furthermore, the group consensus measurements of scenarios have been calculated by using the CP method, in which the number of stakeholders’ consensus has been considered. Accordingly, the group scores and consensus measurements of scenarios have been determined and scenarios have been ranked based on the group consensus measurements in several risk attitudes of stakeholders. This approach has been developed for Kashafrud river basin, to select the most preferable water supply scenario in 2040. The evaluation of scenarios has been performed with respect to the sustainable development criteria based on the watershed modelling. The results showed that the ranking of scenarios depends on the risk assessment and group consensus. Finally, the sustainable development has been analyzed to determine the most preferable scenario for satisfying the most important criteria within the watershed. Development of the risk-based decision support system model is recommended for effective governance of any watershed within the world.