Rainfall-runoff Simulation Using ArcSWAT Model
A Case Study: Bago River Basin in Myanmar

Myanmar has numerous flood plains where monsoon flooding is an annual concern. In this study, the Bago River Basin in Myanmar is chosen as a study area. Bago River Basin is located in the lower part of Myanmar, which is frequently damaged by flooding. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and SWAT-CUP model have been applied to generate runoff of Bago River Basin. The sensitivities of model parameters are symbolic parameters with regard to various precipitation datasets and sub-basin. The SWAT model with the ArcGIS environment is the ArcSWAT and has undergone extensive validation. The SWAT-CUP model parameters for stream flows along the Bago River are calibrated and validated for periods of 2010-2013 and 2014, respectively. The statistical evaluation is calculated for simulated discharges values for calibration and validation flood events. As a result, the statistical analysis showed that the coefficient of determination (R²) and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values for runoff estimation were accessed as 0.76 and 0.56 respectively. It is found that SWAT model can appropriately reproduce the peak discharge, flood timing and volume, by rainfall and soil data. This result shows that the SWAT model appears to be reliable to predict the flood events of Bago Watershed.

Keywords: SWAT; Bago River Basin; Calibration and Validation; Sensitivity Analysis; Statistical Analysis; SWAT-CUP SUFI2.