Research on the Quantitative Evaluation Method of Regional Adaptive Drought-resistance

In recent years, the regional drought has been occurring frequently, and their impacts can lead to reduced water supply, crop failure and reduced range productivity, as well as affect a host of economic and social activities. Drought, as a prolonged status of water deficit, has attracted great attention from all sectors of society and been a challenging topic in the field of water resources management and disaster science. Drought-resistance assessment is one of the core strategic researches to carry out drought prevention and mitigation. Adaptive drought-resistance is defined as the ability that is formed by changing their properties of human society system, to resist and adapt for a certain degree of water shortage drought. The formation mechanism identification of adaptive drought-resistance and its quantitative evaluation is currently an international scientific issue in drought science.

The specific objectives of the research with focus on adaptive drought-resistance is as follows：（1）to establish the quantitative evaluation method system of adaptive drought-resistance considering water balance in drought process coupling models for comprehensive drought characterization identification based on water cycle process, water supply dynamic calculation of drought period;（2）to scientifically evaluate regional drought coping ability. In which, SWAT model was used to simulate soil water content and the individual indicators, such as rainfall, runoff and soil moisture content, were integrated as a comprehensive drought index using the Principal Component Analysis method. The relative anomaly characterization of drought indicators was employed to identify the drought process by Run theory and the arid characteristic variables of drought index were extracted, for instance drought duration and drought severity. Copula theory and Run theory were employed to probabilistically describe the frequency characteristics of drought, eventually to achieve a comprehensive analysis for the drought frequency. This research will provide direct scientific supports for regional drought mitigation, coping strategy and water resources planning of Yunnan Province.