Stochastic Modeling of the Maximum Flow Events of the Fonce River (San Gil, Colombia) for the Design of Works, Against Non-stationary Events- Phase I: Application of the Pearson System

Several experts recently have questioned the hypothesis of stationarity in meteorological and hydrological processes. They pose new challenges to engineering, related to the design of works against non-stationary stochastic processes. The main challenge lies in estimating the probability of exceedance of a flow value for the design of a work in the face of a trend (increase or decrease) in the flows.

This work responds to the question ¿do the statistical properties of the maximum flows of the Fonce River (San Gil, Santander) show a non-stationary hydrological process? For asking the question the maximum values ​​of river flow are compiled, its independence is checked (by means of the self-correlation coefficient),its homogeneity, the statistical moments are estimated (applying the Pearson method). Subsequently, the frequency histograms are constructed and a traditional statistical model and one from the Pearson System are adjusted.

The results of the work show that the maximum flows have a non-stationary stochastic process behavior. The work is the product of the research project called "Development of a methodology and an application of hydrological modeling under the impact of climate change scenarios for the design of military works on land routes. Case study: design of the bridge in the Fonce river, maximum flow (SAN GIL, SANTANDER) "the Military Engineers School, approved by the Education and Doctrine Command CEDOC of the Direction of Science and Technology DITEC of the National Army of Colombia.