Study on Model Selection in Reservoir Water Supply Operation

Operation rules method (ORM) and optimized model method (OMM) are two important methods in reservoir water supply operation research for different operation scenarios. However, there is a lack of a quantitative methods select strategy, especially in real-time operation. Contrapose this issue, this paper proposes a basic strategy for operation method selecting by analyzing the influence of runoff forecasting uncertainty. ORM is recommended for large uncertainty; OMM is recommended for small uncertainty. The article furthermore takes Heiquan reservoir as an example and proposes the threshold value of forecasting uncertainty as reference while selecting the operation method. This strategy is also applicable to other reservoirs with similar processes of inflow and water supply.