The 6th Congress of Exercise and Sport Sciences

Gambling With Leadership Succession in Brazilian Football: A Scientific Evaluation of Head Coach Turnovers and Their Impact on Team Performance

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German Sport University, Cologne, Germany

Head coaches in professional sports are usually blamed for unsuccessful on-field performance and end up losing their jobs, despite their philosophy, experience and background. In fact, leadership succession has already been explored in the sports literature across different countries. Nonetheless, in South America a research gap still exists – even though Brazilian football seems to surpass the limits of coaching changes in comparison to any other league studied up to date, as the turnover rates have been elevated to alarming numbers in Brazil without substantial evidence behind the decisions taken by club directors and board members.

This scientific investigation examines the causes, consequences and expectations around head coach turnovers in the Brasileirão (the first tier of the Brazilian national football league) over 16 seasons, from 2003 to 2018. To conduct the present research, a comprehensive longitudinal dataset was collected using secondary data (N = 13,012 match-level observations), and a series of regression analyses evaluated the determinants of coaching replacements, as well as their effect on team performance and expectations. Within the sample period, 264 individual coaches and 41 different football clubs participated in the Brasileirão, and all of them are considered in the analysis.

By applying the assessment of econometrics, statistical results revealed that coaching survival is heavily affected by a negative spell of three to four games, parallel competitions, and performance expectations with two games in advance. Most importantly, it takes seven games for a slight sign of improvement to be identified after a turnover has been executed, but no clear positive signs are recognized in the aftermath, which highlights the ritual scapegoating theory in Brazil. Overall, the empirical findings suggest that decision makers should turn off their short-term mindset, considering the importance of a rational evaluation and the crucial component of time, instead of judging coaches based on subjectivity and immediate results. On the other hand, head coaches should be more strategic with their coaching appointments, avoiding voluntary turnovers and exercising priorities ahead of international cups and sequences with few points accumulated, as they may affect sustainable tenures and potential benefits in the long run.

In summary, this econometrics examination introduces an unprecedented scientific contribution to sport economics scholars who have an interest in the Brazilian and South American football management practices. Without relevant literature capturing managerial decisions, head coaches’ tenure or influences in team performance in Brazil and South America, the present research distinguishes itself as a major step towards knowledge development and theoretical understanding for a region that still lacks a legitimate body of scientific evidence to back up its practical assumptions in sports.

Matheus Galdino De Souza
Matheus Galdino De Souza
German Sport University, Cologne








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