US Policymaking on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, 1967-Present: The Shift from External (Middle Eastern) Events to Domestic US Politics

What drives changes in US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? The paper argues that from 1967 until Obama’s presidency the US policy was formed in response to Middle Eastern dynamics and specifically, to Israeli actions. But Trump’s overtly pro-Israeli policy reflected domestic US political dynamics, such as the growing dominance of evangelicals in the republican party and in Trump’s political backing, while there was no significant input from the Middle East. The paper will discuss trends in US policy concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 1967, focusing on the status of Jerusalem, settlements, autonomy, and borders in the final status. Carter was the first president to have had a clear policy, while his predecessors and most of his successors were less ideological and more opportunistic, maintaining a vague terminology to remain flexible amid Middle Eastern dynamics. Policy changes usually corresponded with Israeli actions or with events surrounding Israel, reflecting differing degrees of sympathy to Israel’s position. However, the recent turn, favoring Israel’s dominant right-wing views, reflects domestic power shifts in the US, which include Israel becoming a partisan issue. Thus, Trump’s pro-Israel policy will likely be reversed – at least partly, excluding the US embassy that will remain in Jerusalem – by Biden’s administration, as part of the democrat-republican domestic political struggle, regardless of Israel’s plausible actions or other developments in the Middle East.









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