Talent Selections in Sport Are Decisions

Jörg Schorer

Institute of Sport Science, University of Oldenberg, Oldenburg, Germany

One of the most prominent problems in sport is ensuring accurate talent selection. On the one hand, every selection means the deselection of many athletes from the high performance developmental system they have chosen. On the other hand, there are often very limited spots for the national talent developmental system for those selected, that might be necessary to develop them into elite athletes. While this is a foundational topic for sport science, our understanding is still rather limited. In this presentation, we will first provide some insight into why talent selections are so difficult. Second, we will present an overview of our research with the German handball federation. In the last two decades, we have explored several ideas on what should and could be done in cooperation with this sport organization. Finally, we will present a new perspective on selections in sport. The current idea behind most talent research is to find a formula that might be able to explain most of the variance of later success in young athletes. While the rationale for this approach is understandable, and at first sight logical, decision-making research in the last decades suggests an alternative approach may be more appropriate. Gigerenzer and colleagues have argued for a “bounded rationality” perspective in decision making and forecasting (Gigerenzer et al., 1999). They suggest simple heuristics might make us smart, and might be as, or probably more, accurate than all the “talent formulas” that exist. This presentation will discuss both approaches, and present findings of two studies that seem to support the bounded rationality approach (Schorer et al., 2017). Together, both approaches might provide a fruitful avenue for future research on talent selection in sport.

Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & Group, T. A. R. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press.

Schorer, J., Rienhoff, R., Fischer, L., & Baker, J. (2017). Long-term prognostic validity of talent selections: Comparing national and regional coaches, laypersons and novices. Frontiers in Psychology, 8(1146). Retrieved from https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01146. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01146

Prof. Jörg Schorer

Oldenburg University

Jörg Schorer (PhD) is a full professor in sport and movement science at the Institute of Sport Science at the Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, Germany. He completed his PhD at the Institute of Sport Science at the University of Heidelberg, Germany, on expertise in handball goal keepers. He completed his post doctoral work (= habilitation) at the Institute of Sport and Exercise Science in Münster, Germany, where he focused on elite sport over the lifespan. Jörg`s research focuses on three different topics: (1) Motor learning and development, (2) perceptual-cognitive performance in sport, and (3) talent in sport. He is currently speaker for the “Motor behavior” section of the German Society of Sport Science. Previously, he was head of the Institute of Sport Science and vice-dean of the faculty of Social and human sciences at the University of Oldenburg. He has worked on the topic of sporting talent with the German Field Hockey federation, the German Handball Federation and the German Table Tennis Association. In addition to over 100 peer reviewed publications and book chapters, he has edited four books and two special journal issues focusing on issues related to talent in sport.