הרצאת אורח – פרופ' ג'יי אולשנסקי: Human Longevity in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities

Background: The question of how long humans can live has puzzled scientists for centuries. In 1990, the limited lifespan hypothesis my colleagues and I set forth proposed that the upper limit to population life expectancy was approximately 85 years—88 years for females and 82 years for males. This view was challenged by predictions that continued advances in medical technology would accelerate longevity gains, potentially allowing most individuals born in the modern era to reach age 100.

Evidence: More than three decades later the data have provided an important test of these competing perspectives. Beginning around 2010, the rate of improvement in human life expectancy began to decelerate, despite substantial advances in medical technology and interventions that might have been expected to produce continued acceleration. As populations have become longer-lived, aging itself has emerged as the dominant risk factor for mortality and disability. The resulting longevity gains have been accompanied by increasing prevalence of age-related conditions, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, dementia, and sensory impairment.

Implications: These observations suggest that further substantial increases in life expectancy cannot be achieved solely by treating individual diseases. Because biological aging is itself modifiable, interventions targeting fundamental mechanisms of aging represent a potentially transformative strategy. Several such approaches have now progressed into early-phase clinical trials. Without breakthroughs in aging science, continued population aging will impose substantial health, social, and economic costs. Conversely, extending the period of youthful vigor rather than merely prolonging survival could generate a substantial longevity dividend—improving healthspan while producing long-term societal and economic benefits.